There is a lot of speculation amongst Phillies fans and media types that right fielder Jayson Werth is not going to be playing in Philadelphia come April of 2011. The 30 year old outfielder is in the last year of his contract and with uber-prospect Domonic Brown waiting in the wings, many expect that Werth will not fit into the team’s future plans.

Of course, this is all pure conjecture. Ruben Amaro, Jr., the always evasive Phillies’ GM, is likely to keep his cards very close to his chest right up until August 1st. And Werth has had little to say on the matter other than denying that he’s focused on his future beyond 2010, or that a recent lunch with former Yankees great Reggie Jackson was anything more than just lunch between old friends (Jackson is friends with both Werth’s mother and steph-father and the two have known each other since Werth was in elementary school).

Chances are that the lunch was simply just that: lunch. Major League Baseball has very strict rules against tampering with players from other teams (as is evidenced by the oft-made excuse from Amaro that he is barred from discussing players on other clubs) and it is unlikely that the Yankees, a team with considerable resources, would be heavily pursuing Werth this early in the process when the 2010-2011 free agent class is expected to be as deep as it has in years (likely free agents are Lance Berkman, Carl Crawford, Manny Ramirez, Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Carlos Pena, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and even Albert Pujols.)

So chances are that the Yankees are not, in fact, courting Werth. That being said, despite the deep free agent class next year, Werth will be a hot commodity. Last season he hit 36 homeruns, knocked in 99 runs and stole 20 bases in his first season as a legitimate starter. His numbers have gotten better in each of his three seasons with the Phillies (with the exception of his batting average, which has actually gotten worse in each successive season), culminating in a an All Star selection in 2009. He was 17th in voting for the NL MVP. He has made himself into an important piece of the Phillies’ World Series runs of the past two seasons and is a now a bona fide major league slugger.

Unfortunately for Werth, the top prospect in the Phillies’ farm system appears poised for the major leagues and it seems that it’s Werth who is in his way. Brown has dominated the minor leagues and made quite an impression while playing with the big league club this spring. Many expect that if he continues to dominate in Double-A and Triple-A ball this season that he will likely find himself at Citizen’s Bank Park before the season is over and possibly starting at Citizen’s Bank Park in 2011. And that’s where Werth comes in.

Werth is a free agent after this season. Centerfielder Shane Victorino just signed an extension and plays a position that is largely safe from the grasp of Brown anyway. Leftfielder Raul Ibanez‘s contract is not up until after the 2011 season. So clearly, Werth is the odd man out. Unfortunately, I do not believe that is the best move for the future of the Phillies.

Ibanez started his first season with the Phillies as well as any player in memory, batting .368 in his first 35 games, knocking in 51 runs in 50 games and needing just 56 games to hit 20 homeruns. It didn’t take long for Phillies fans to forget the name of the man that held that position for the better part of the past decade, who voted him into the All Star game for the first time in his career. Ibanez seemed to be everything we expected and more.

And then he got hurt. In mid-June Ibanez suffered a left groin strain and missed the better part of the next month. At the time he went on the disabled list, he was batting .312 with 22 homeruns and 59 RBIs through 62 games. He finished the season with a batting average of .272, 34 homeruns and 93 RBIs. So through the next 72 games, his average dropped by 30 points and he only hit 12 homeruns and 34 RBIs. The injury clearly bothered him throughout the remainder of the season, but it was overshadowed by the success of the other plays around him.

Ibanez is set to turn 38 years old in June. By the time his contract is up, he will be almost 40. He’s a great guy, class act, and a good major league hitter. But I do not think that he is as good, offensively, defensively or in the field, as Werth. He is eight years older than Werth. And he bats left handed, whereas Werth bats from the other side of the plate, a rarity in the lefty-heavy Phillies’ lineup.

That is why I think the Phillies should sign Werth to a contract extension and if, and I mean if, Brown is playing well enough in the minors this season to warrant a call up and a starting spot in the outfield, then Amaro should deal Ibanez at the trade deadline. That being said, I do not think Brown will necessarily be ready to start this season and that the Phillies can wait until the season is over to decide whether or not to move Ibanez, but I do think they should sign Werth before the season is over. By taking Werth out of the free agent pool, the Phillies put themselves in the best position come the off season. By not waiting, they are in a better negotiating position with Werth and a better negotiating position should they decide to deal Ibanez.

I know this season hasn’t even started yet, but it’s a move that will most certainly impact this season, one way or the other.